Meeting the growing demand
for conveniently located homes in walkable neighborhoods could significantly
reduce the growth in the number of miles Americans drive, shrinking the
nation’s carbon footprint while giving people more housing choices, according
to a team of urban planning researchers.
In a comprehensive review of
dozens of studies, the researchers conclude in a report published by the Urban
Land Institute that development patterns are both a key contributor to climate
change and an essential factor in combating it.
The report, released today by Environment Colorado,
the Colorado District Council of ULI (ULI-Colorado), and the Sierra Club, warns
that if sprawling development continues to fuel growth in driving, the
projected 59 percent increase in the total miles driven between 2005 and 2030
will overwhelm expected gains from vehicle efficiency and low-carbon fuels. Even
if the most stringent fuel-efficiency proposals under consideration are
enacted, vehicle emissions still would be 40 percent above 1990 levels in 2030
– entirely off-track from the deep reductions below 1990 levels that are required by 2050 to avoid the worst
affects of global warming, according to Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban
Development and Climate Change.
“Colorado is poised to come out
with vitally important goals for reducing our state’s global warming
pollution,” said Pam Kiely, Land Use Advocate with Environment Colorado, “But
to meet the challenge, we need to start driving down our growth in vehicle
emissions, instead of simply driving around the problem.”
Colorado’s
residents are driving more than ever before, fueling increases in vehicle fuel
emissions, one of the leading sources of global warming pollution. Spread-out development is the key factor
in that rate of growth, the research team found. In 1980 Coloradans drove 22
million miles annually—in 2005 that figure had jumped to 47 million miles, a
114% increase. Colorado ranks 11th in the nation for the highest growth in
vehicle miles traveled during this 25 year period.
On average, Americans living
in compact neighborhoods where cars are not the only transportation option
drive a third fewer miles than those in typical automobile-oriented places,
such as subdivisions and office parks, the report found. The report cites real
estate projections showing that two-thirds of development expected to be on the
ground in 2050 is not yet built, meaning that the potential for change is
profound.
“Even more significantly,”
notes Michael Leccese, Executive Director of ULI-Colorado, “is that in Colorado
there is an increasing demand for smarter, compact development with jobs,
activities, and transit close at hand. The development community can win big by
taking advantage of this growing market, and will play a key role implementing
real solutions to climate change.”
The paper calculates that shifting 60 percent of new growth to
compact patterns would save 85 million metric tons of CO2 annually by 2030,
equivalent to a 28 percent increase in federal fuel economy standards by 2020
(to 32 mpg).
The findings show that people
who move into compact, “green neighborhoods” are making as big a contribution
to fighting global warming as those who buy the most efficient hybrid vehicles,
but remain in car-dependent areas.
Yet while consumer demand for
such smart-growth development is growing, “Government regulations, government
spending, and transportation policies all still favor sprawling, automobile-dependent
development,” notes State Representative Claire Levy. “It is time for Governor
Ritter and my colleagues in the state legislature to put smart growth back on
the agenda, and make sure it is a key part of any strategy for addressing
global warming in Colorado.”
The paper recommends changes
in all three areas to make green neighborhoods more available and more
affordable. It also calls for including
smart-growth strategies as a fundamental tenet in climate change plans at the federal,
state, and even local level.
“Being able to
spend less time behind the wheel will benefit our health & quality of life,
our pocketbooks, and the environment,” said Clear Creek County Commissioner
Harry Dale, “and we ought to be working hard at the local level to shape
communities that we are proud of through smart land use and transportation
decisions. We need to start putting
people first, instead of automobiles first.”
The
study represents a collaboration among leading urban planning researchers at
the University of Maryland, the University of Utah,
Fehr and Peers Associates, the Center for Clean Air Policy and the Urban Land
Institute. Smart Growth America coordinated the multi-disciplinary team that
developed the recommended policy actions and is leading a broad coalition to
develop those strategies further.
